Stupid Federal Election Prediction 2006

Well I wasn't even close. I'm way too optimistic at these things. As I stated, I based my findings on the Ipsos-Reid poll and that 8% lead factor.

So what did I under/over estimate?

I thought the CPC would gain in B.C. They did get +2% but lost 5 seats. That's poor strategy there. Hats off to Jack Layton for spending the most time there. The NDP ran a very good campaign and did the best they could.

In Alberta, not surprised Mike Lake won. That was a wollup actually. And my good friend Laurie Hawn gained 3 points from 2004 and turned Landslide Annie into a mudslide. (What a party we had afterward. Still recovering...) He won by 3790 votes. That's more votes than Anne won in all previous four elections - combined. She's really regretting that Paul Martin visit now.

My friend Jeremy Harrison, the incumbant Conservative, lost his seat in Churchill River in Saskatchewan by 100 votes. However, there's rumour of massive voter fraud there. Hmmm... Too bad, he's a young, bright guy with a lot of potential. Manitoba was a gain for the CPC .. finally!

Quebec surprised me. Thought the CPC would get 4 seats, but 10 seats! Wow!

I thought the Maritimes would add a few more Conservatives.

Now let's talk about Ontario. I guess I just won't ever understand that big fat province, more particularly, the Greater Toronto Area. I guess corruption, scandal, and entitlement is part of the culture. Pretty forgiving if you ask me. Heck, let's throw Vancouver and Montreal in there. Canada's three big cities still want control over the country while everyone else is tired of it. And I'm not so much talking about wayfare socialists, I'm talking big business. I'm talking about Belinda and Paul Martin. They're big business.

Harper is middle class hockey dad. And that's why he won. He related to the average Tim and Horton Canadian (hat tip to Andrew Coyne for "coyning" that phrase) and soccer mom. Years ago, I suggested to the Harper camp that they show off his hockey dad image a lot more. Very powerful Canadianna there. I'm glad they finally listened.

Well, big business won't have anyone at the cabinet table. The smaller cities are emerging -- Alberta in particular. The middle class is tired of the weight that's been placed on them with the high taxes and shitty programs. It's time we took our country back and it's nice to see that Quebec is agreeing with us again.

And I promise, no more optimistic polls. I'm not even going to mention 2004 or that'll put me into PEDS again (post-election distress syndrome).

And I can't wait until my father gets back from his month long stint in South Africa. He was never a big Harper fan. He even supported Belinda in the leadership race. While I carefully rub this win in his face, I know he'll say it should have been a majority. Then we'll have a talk about Hogtown.