Science has shown that today, January 23rd, 2006 is the most depressing day of the year... for Paul Martin that is.
Here's my seat prediction, and I've maintained this for weeks now. Everyone is predicting a Conservative minority, while I'm predicting a Conservative Majority. You see, I've said, it's 1984 all over again. The Liberals are at 27%, just like they were then, their worst defeat ever, when they were reduced to below 50 seats, but I don't think they'll be that low this time, yet close to 3rd place because their vote is concentrated in the GTA. As well, I've seen graphs that show if you have at least an 8 point lead, you get a majority. Well, the polls show a 9-11 point lead for Harper.
A Bloc opposition would be a nightmare for Harper, having to pander to Quebec and answer in French all the time. A Liberal opposition would be ideal, as they would have no credibility in answering questions. In fact, it would be embarrassing for former cabinet ministers to ask questions regarding their old department. All the Conservative minister would have to say is, "Well, we're still trying to fix all the problems you created."
Conservatives: 159
Liberals: 60
Bloc: 58
NDP: 30
Ind.: 1 (Quebec)
So there you have it. It's optimistic. I was optimistic in 2004 and got burned. I'm praying that Canadians aren't as gullable as before.
1 comment:
Well atleast you were close to the prediction for NDP seats ...Rahim Jaffer better pull up his socks ...when the rest of the city saw a conservative landslide (with the exception of city centre, most PC candidates clobbered the field with nearly double the votes from the nearest candidate .... Jaffer had Duncan running very close behind ....I hope he listens to that .....)
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